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I think the only way to figure out is to negotiate. There is a lot going on for the dealer that can make it very complicated to figure of the “lowest you can go”. For instance, a dealer may be getting an incentive from BMW NA due to meeting metrics or holdback or something else entirely. A dealer could also accept a modest loss knowing the customer regularly services at the dealership so they’ll recoup the loss in service work. They may also be able to clawback a discount in finance office pork (warranties or dealership financing pushes).
I negotiated my purchase price and was very sure it was a good deal at the time as no other dealership in my area came close and they freaked out once they saw my buyers order with the final price and I had the selling dealership trying to rollback the deal. But that was a rare pricing error on their part (they priced it as a 2019 and were hoping to keep it off the lot since the 2020 cars were due soon). Dealers love to poach a sale so you can negotiate your best price then cross that by other dealers and see where you end up.
Just be very aware that a dealership can try to claw something back in pork. I turned the pork down and didn’t let the dealership steal my trade either...
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