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I am purchasing my first BMW (it is on order) so I can't speak from a historical perspective (if that matters anyway since each car is somewhat unique). I am hoping that the car proves to be as reliable as my '14 Mercedes C300 where buying the extended warranty wasn't all that useful (car is super reliable and hasn't had any major issues). I can only speak to what my plan is here with the BMW.
From what I can see, there isn't really any penalty to buying the warranty after purchase (so long as your factory warranty hasn't expired) and I can't confirm that BMW extended warranties are fully refundable like Mercedes is (up until you enter the extended warranty phase). As a result, I don't see any reason to purchase the extended warranty immediately and can base some of my decision on having driven the car for a couple of years first.
I was quoted $5K for 3y/100K mile "Platinum" extended which is a fair bit. On my C300 I paid $2500 or so for 3 years/unlimited miles. I felt $2500 would be easier to hit in repair costs than I do about hitting $5K in a short period. So I'm going to sort of "see how it goes".
I'd recommend the same...
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