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In a few days mortgage rates will come down, but how much depends on whether the 30 year and 10 year treasury rates remain low or start to rebound. I looked at TIAA bank’s web site yesterday and saw 3.25% for a 30-yr fixed jumbo refi rate, 3.00% for a 15-yr fixed jumbo refi. I would expect 25-50bps drop from there at most. Both loans had points, which I always assume are negotiable.
The old rule of thumb was 1/2% (50bps) or more lower rate was worth it to refi, depending on points and fees. That was when the basis was over 6%; so maybe with a basis around 4% for an existing loan only 25bps would make sense?
So much depends on the current loan: rate, payment, remaining term; versus the new loan. Extending the term at a lower rate can really help cash flow, for example. Alternatively, if your goal is to pay off faster, the 15-year could work or you could roll the dice on an ARM and make extra principal payments.
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