Quote:
Originally Posted by bayarea328xit
I bet that a high-efficiency gas engine for powering a battery-driven EV drivetrain will take more than 50% of the US market for at least 10+ years before we get to 50% market share for pure-EVs.
|
There are a number of factors at play:
(1.) Oil prices and scale economies of gasoline distribution and filling stations
(2.) Battery costs, energy density, and availability
(3.) Charging solutions, costs, and availability
A few interesting stats:
* The avg registered vehicle in the US is 13 years old - you can look at that as a lot of pent-up demand for new cars
* If every new car sold in the US were an EV, it'd take 10 years to replace most cars on the road
I think what people forget is what happens as the economies of scale tip ...
For example, gas stations sell gas as loss leaders for in-store sales; what'll happen if gas sales slow and store trips decrease?
There are easily installable induction charging kits for EVs ... and installing the pads in parking lots is relatively cheap ... I bet Target, Walmart, CostCo and other really really want those quick trip sales gas stations are getting; what if they install chargers and induction pads?
In short, you can see gas station sales dropping like a rock in cities and suburbs; that'll kill gas stations making them more scarce which'll kill the economies of scale around making and selling gas ... gas prices will rise, availability & convenience will fall & at the same time EV costs will fall, convenience will rise. Toss in some new financing models based on total cost of ownership (incl maintenance) and power sales and you can see easily a collapse of ICE.
Net-net: economies of scale won't favor gasoline sales due to price, availability, and convenience. Practical business folk see no future in such a vehicle.
It's ain't politicians, it's just business.