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I was trying more to imply better-than-lease numbers depreciation instead of appreciation, but your points are all well taken.
It is definitely not a sure thing. Buying upon expected future value is gambling. Just like in poker, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. That is one of the benefits of leasing. There is no risk to the buyer, because the house (dealership) assumes the risk up front. When the lease is over, you don't have to care what the resale value is. You can just ignore all of that and hand them the keys and walk away. Of course the house isn't stupid, and it stacks the cards in it's favor.
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