BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
BIMMERPOST Universal Forums Off-Topic Discussions Board Inverted yield curve

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      09-03-2019, 08:55 AM   #111
Run Silent
Run Deep
Run Silent's Avatar
United_States
12194
Rep
3,401
Posts

Drives: Back and Forth To Work
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: The Mountains

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by roastbeef View Post
interesting. the lender i'm talking to is urging me to hold off for a little bit longer. he's speculating the rates are going to go a little lower- and so far, he has been spot on since may when i approached him about rates and a refi. he seems to think there is a perfect storm brewing with the fed's involvement, an election coming up, and a possible trade war.
Note the bold.

Little lower. This is exactly what 2000cs stated. I can see mortgage rates dropping 10 or 20 BP, perhaps, but the long term economic outlook isn't negative to any dramatic degree, and as such, one shouldn't hedge that the current mortgage rates are going to drop significantly.
__________________
Don't sweat petty things....or pet sweaty things.
Appreciate 3
2000cs1001.00
roastbeef5821.00
FCobra942423.00

      09-03-2019, 09:14 AM   #112
roastbeef
Major General
roastbeef's Avatar
United_States
5821
Rep
9,677
Posts

Drives: E92 M3
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Orange County, CA

iTrader: (2)

I was hoping for a 2.75% fixed 15year... not sure we're going to make it. The house I sold was at 3.25 fixed/30 and I miss that. Not sure we'll get that low again.
__________________
Instagram; @roastbeefmike
Appreciate 0
      09-03-2019, 09:43 AM   #113
corn18
Second Lieutenant
corn18's Avatar
172
Rep
200
Posts

Drives: 2020 X3 M40i
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Dallas

iTrader: (0)

I have been watching mortgage rate closely for 2 months. 2 months ago, the 10 yr was @ 2% and 15 year rates were around 3%. 10yr and 30 yr have dropped 0.5% and the mortgage rates have not moved. Very odd.
Appreciate 0
      09-03-2019, 04:31 PM   #114
CLABRO
THUNDER UP!
CLABRO's Avatar
United_States
252
Rep
291
Posts

Drives: BMW M Sport G30
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma

iTrader: (1)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by corn18 View Post
I have been watching mortgage rate closely for 2 months. 2 months ago, the 10 yr was @ 2% and 15 year rates were around 3%. 10yr and 30 yr have dropped 0.5% and the mortgage rates have not moved. Very odd.
Where are you looking? Mortgage rates have also dropped *slightly*. The thing is, mortgage rates aren't too far off from their all time lows so it's not like we're going to see a significant reduction in mortgage rates nor should we expect to see that. Nothing odd about it really.

Historically speaking, we're still in a low interest rate environment! I think people forget that and think that a 2.75% fixed rate 15 year mortgage is normal and they're just going to wait until that comes back around next month. Rates like that don't just come around every 5 years.....

As Run Silent said, I suspect mortgage rates will drop another ~15-20 basis points as they should (Fed rose rates too quickly to begin with, but that's another topic).
__________________

G30 l Alpine White l M Sport Package l Executive Tier l Icon Adaptive Full LED Headlights l Mocha Nappa Leather l Multi-Contour Seats l Drivers Assistance Package l Drivers Assistance Plus Package l Dynamic Handling Package l Parking Assistance Package l Bowers & Wilkins Diamond Surround Sound System l M Sport Brakes l Apple Carplay
Appreciate 3
Run Silent12194.00
FCobra942423.00

      09-03-2019, 06:30 PM   #115
FCobra94
Brigadier General
FCobra94's Avatar
2423
Rep
4,576
Posts

Drives: '07 E90 335i
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: MD

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Run Silent View Post
Note the bold.

Little lower. This is exactly what 2000cs stated. I can see mortgage rates dropping 10 or 20 BP, perhaps, but the long term economic outlook isn't negative to any dramatic degree, and as such, one shouldn't hedge that the current mortgage rates are going to drop significantly.
Yep...here are some nice historical graphs which help to analyze previous trends:
30 year - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
15 year - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Xeu
__________________
'07 E90 335i - Automagic - Non-sport
MHD E60|Alpina Flash|Stg 2 LPFP|VRSF 7"FMIC-DP-CP|TIAL BOV|cp-e DCI
Bilstein B6|Dinan Camber Plates|E93 M3 FSB-LCA-Guide Rods|Manzo Toe Arms|HPS 5.0
Sonic Tuning ST100 - 18x8.5 ET35 - Conti DWS 245/40/18 - 10/20 F/R spacers
Appreciate 3
Run Silent12194.00
chassis135.50
roastbeef5821.00

      09-04-2019, 12:28 AM   #116
roastbeef
Major General
roastbeef's Avatar
United_States
5821
Rep
9,677
Posts

Drives: E92 M3
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Orange County, CA

iTrader: (2)

just got a text from my lender today, he said its time to get started on the paperwork... he's at 3.75% on a 30/fixed at this time. we bought in march this year (crap timing for interest rates) at 4.5%. so its still a decent chunk.
we might also look at a 15 year, but worse case scenario, we'll just pay on the 30 like its a 15.
__________________
Instagram; @roastbeefmike
Appreciate 1
FCobra942423.00

      09-04-2019, 12:58 AM   #117
EstorilM240
Private
80
Rep
80
Posts

Drives: 2017 M240i 6MT
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: California

iTrader: (0)

Somehow we've survived nine months since the inversion. It makes me wonder, if it's so obvious there will be a recession and the Fed has almost always let a recession happen, how are they so afraid of overreacting vs. underreacting?

As much as the interest rates have dropped, the auto financing deals are not as good as 2012-2014. I see that places like Germany are now negative rates for bonds across the board, so how much do they pay on auto loans? A casual browsing of sites like kredit.check24.de suggests 0.9-1.9% is common for 4 years, but it makes you think of what the reality on the ground is. If Denmark can have negative mortgage rates maybe people can get paid to buy cars too! https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/dani...est-rates.html

Last edited by EstorilM240; 09-04-2019 at 02:32 AM..
Appreciate 0
      09-04-2019, 10:58 PM   #118
roastbeef
Major General
roastbeef's Avatar
United_States
5821
Rep
9,677
Posts

Drives: E92 M3
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Orange County, CA

iTrader: (2)

How hard would it be to get a loan in Denmark and convert it to USD? Lol
__________________
Instagram; @roastbeefmike
Appreciate 0
      09-18-2019, 09:00 PM   #119
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
We are in an earnings recession, and it is expected to get worse
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th..._theo_homepage

It's clear now that the Trump tax cut was simply a sugar high. It creates a huge budget deficit of about 1T dollars which leads to a huge imbalance between the private and public sector. Tax is neither a republican nor democratic issue. It's a mean to keep a country operating efficiently. You can't starve the public sector. Sure you can sell bonds to fund the government but that's not the right way to go, because when you sell bonds, every dumb a$$ in this country will paid and not just the rich.

This dumb a$$ head clearly in the sh$t when signed the bill. lols I am a republican and I just called the dude a dumb a$$.
Appreciate 1
      09-19-2019, 02:41 PM   #120
dsad1
Lieutenant Colonel
713
Rep
1,777
Posts

Drives: car
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: United States

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th..._theo_homepage

It's clear now that the Trump tax cut was simply a sugar high. It creates a huge budget deficit of about 1T dollars which leads to a huge imbalance between the private and public sector. Tax is neither a republican nor democratic issue. It's a mean to keep a country operating efficiently. You can't starve the public sector. Sure you can sell bonds to fund the government but that's not the right way to go, because when you sell bonds, every dumb a$$ in this country will paid and not just the rich.

This dumb a$$ head clearly in the sh$t when signed the bill. lols I am a republican and I just called the dude a dumb a$$.
The deficit isn't created by the cut, it is created by the spending spree. Raise or lower taxes as much as you want, if you are not going to control the spending, you will always be in trouble.
Appreciate 0
      09-19-2019, 03:44 PM   #121
dmatre
Lieutenant
United_States
126
Rep
495
Posts

Drives: 2011 328i Sedan
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Carolinas

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
The deficit isn't created by the cut, it is created by the spending spree. Raise or lower taxes as much as you want, if you are not going to control the spending, you will always be in trouble.
Actually, it is both.

If you take in less, then you must spend less.

In Washington, they seemed to have missed that relationship (both sides).
Appreciate 1
      09-19-2019, 04:47 PM   #122
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmatre View Post
Actually, it is both.

If you take in less, then you must spend less.

In Washington, they seemed to have missed that relationship (both sides).
It's not really spending. It's more about entitlement programs which neither side dares to touch lols. And why? Because they'll get vote out of office. So who do you blame? The piglititions or the voters? So what's waging the dog lols.

The good thing is the EU is printing even faster than the US. 80% over there is like Greece (where Alexander the Great came from lols)

Everybody talking about the Chinese taking over the world but they may be printing even more and worse like their fake stuffs, nobody knows how much. The Chinese got no transparency to speak of.

It's the race to the bottom it's just that the US is a little slower than the other guys.
Appreciate 0
      09-26-2019, 10:33 PM   #123
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

lols. If the market crashes, Trump can blame it on the Dems. The FED will stay on the bench just in case. Let's the blame games begin ladies and gentlemen.
Appreciate 0
      10-02-2019, 11:27 AM   #124
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

OK, that didn't take long :-)))

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/trum...ket-lower.html
Appreciate 0
      10-07-2019, 04:33 PM   #125
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

The so called "Death cross" appears in the DOW Transports. US data has been trending down lately. There have been talks of a 2018 Q4 deja vu. Hm... is it going to be that easy? Seems like every year is a deja vu - like a joke :-)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/de..._theo_homepage

Last edited by WestRace; 10-07-2019 at 04:56 PM..
Appreciate 0
      11-09-2019, 05:15 PM   #126
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

It can't be that easy - whenever you're in trouble, just print your way out of trouble. I have to think there's a consequence. If it's too good to be true, then maybe it's too good to be true.

Quote:
‘world has gone mad’ with easy money and ‘system is broken’
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fo...?mod=home-page
Appreciate 0
      11-12-2019, 08:25 PM   #127
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

Maybe this is what the future looks like but I still can't see how you can print your way out of trouble ... ad infinitum. Sure it maybe a scare tactic but there have been a lot of chatters of late. The fact that Euro zone central bank has Negative interest is a big concern. It means that people over there don't have any confidence to invest so the central banks are like putting a gun in their heads to force them to invest.

BUT it's also true that things you don't see that cause a crash. BUT it's also true that things you don't see that will begin a new bull markets. Well, it's your call :-)

Quote:
there actually are troubling linkages between several negative developments that, on the surface, appear to be random and unrelated ...

"The failures in the repo market, negative-yielding debt, a deeply negative term premium, trade conflicts around the world and a collapse in manufacturing all seem unrelated right now, but I don't think they are random,"

... negative yields on sovereign debt as the loudest discordant note today

If you push down [interest rates] too much, you create the problem you are trying to solve

rising numbers of IPOs from loss-making companies

... IPOs from unprofitable companies "signs of excess" that often accompany the late stages of an economic expansion. Indeed, large numbers of unprofitable companies going public also marked the dotcom bubble

When you push liquidity through the system like they [the Fed] have the last ten years, you create a giant bubble

the Fed creating a "Ponzi sector," which includes "companies that have no chance of ever earning a profit," but which attract investors.

high risk leveraged loans have been collapsing in value, and the total global exposure may be as high as $3.2 trillion
https://www.investopedia.com/blackst...ral&yptr=yahoo
Appreciate 0
      11-12-2019, 10:07 PM   #128
chassis
Second Lieutenant
chassis's Avatar
United_States
136
Rep
251
Posts

Drives: BMW G01 X3, M-B GLE350W4
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Indiana

iTrader: (0)

WestRace, are you buying or selling?
Appreciate 0
      11-12-2019, 11:13 PM   #129
WestRace
Captain
440
Rep
961
Posts

Drives: E46 M3, E90 M3
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Los Angels, Ca.

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
WestRace, are you buying or selling?
I am holding mostly cash. Thinking of buying Boeing since it's probably bottoming out. It's interesting that the banks are mostly in their highs of the year so there's something going on there.

The Russel 2000 has just formed what's called a "golden cross". Don't know ...

On the negative sides, corporate earnings have been pretty flat so I really don't know what will power the markets to new highs other than the FED will lower rates lower and lower. But there was a recent article that said the FED will probably hold rates as is at least until the after the 2020 election.
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:20 AM.




5post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST