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      10-07-2019, 10:51 PM   #1
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China trade deal: If Trump will cave in?

OK, if Trump will give in to the Chinese and do a bad deal that pretty much let the Chinese have everything they want but we get little in return, what will you think of him. Of course Trump will get a more favorable stock market comes 2020 election so in affect, he did that purely for personal gain.

Will you still have any respect for him?
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      10-07-2019, 11:08 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
OK, if Trump will give in to the Chinese and do a bad deal that pretty much let the Chinese have everything they want but we get little in return, what will you think of him. Of course Trump will get a more favorable stock market comes 2020 election so in affect, he did that purely for personal gain.

Will you still have any respect for him?
If he gives in, I will first view him as an ineffective leader who makes promises he cannot keep.

I don't believe Trump is sophisticated or diabolical enough to wage a trade war and then predict its outcome in the financial markets for personal gain and his giving in will probably be to save face.

2016-2019 is unprecedented. Our level of cynicism in the Presidency is such that ahead of incompetence, egoism, brashness, tomfoolery, inexperience, our first thought runs to 'this guy is doing everything to enrich or reelect himself'.

I'm like a one trick pony in all the threads but that's what happens when you subscribe wholesale to the narrative that is fed by the likes of FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc.
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      10-07-2019, 11:28 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by e90335e36m3 View Post
I don't believe Trump is sophisticated or diabolical enough to wage a trade war and then predict its outcome in the financial markets for personal gain and his giving in will probably be to save face.
Actually it's been happening for the last year and a half ever since the trade war begin, so it's not really a prediction but already part of the market history. You could almost trade the market based on the trade war headlines. You can pretty much overlay the trade war headlines to the market reactions to like almost a 1 to 1 correlation.

If there is a trade deal with the Chinese, good or bad, the market will shoot up like you don't even know what happens. The shorts will run for cover like they don't know what hit them, while the longs will make a killing.

If I personally know in advance the outcome of this trade deal, I could make so much money in the market that you won't believe.
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      10-08-2019, 12:30 AM   #4
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He will cave 💯
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      10-08-2019, 12:31 AM   #5
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Ever see charlie wilsons war? The USA destroyed the ussr by forcing them into going broke. Donald is doing much the same thing with this trade war. The chinese economy still relies very heavily on the money the US of A sends them from every dollar store back scratcher to every iphone. These tariffs will cost china so dearly that their factories will become non profitable and close.

Hopefully to reopen in north america where our kids can once again make cars and fridges and ac units and robotics in the way that our fathers did.

This war of economics started in the 80’s. Trumps here to put an end of it for the benefit of his country and people.

Edit: look up the spreadsheets between the USA and china. The USA is still the richer country. Its still the stronger economic power.

Trump knows what he is doing.

Last edited by Zugzwang; 10-08-2019 at 12:36 AM..
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      10-08-2019, 12:43 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zugzwang View Post
Ever see charlie wilsons war? The USA destroyed the ussr by forcing them into going broke. Donald is doing much the same thing with this trade war. The chinese economy still relies very heavily on the money the US of A sends them from every dollar store back scratcher to every iphone. These tariffs will cost china so dearly that their factories will become non profitable and close.

Hopefully to reopen in north america where our kids can once again make cars and fridges and ac units and robotics in the way that our fathers did.

This war of economics started in the 80ís. Trumps here to put an end of it for the benefit of his country and people.

Edit: look up the spreadsheets between the USA and china. The USA is still the richer country. Its still the stronger economic power.

Trump knows what he is doing.
Agree, Trump knows exactly what he is doing and is trying to bring China to their knees. Watch....
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      10-08-2019, 08:37 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zugzwang View Post
Ever see charlie wilsons war? The USA destroyed the ussr by forcing them into going broke. Donald is doing much the same thing with this trade war. The chinese economy still relies very heavily on the money the US of A sends them from every dollar store back scratcher to every iphone. These tariffs will cost china so dearly that their factories will become non profitable and close.

Hopefully to reopen in north america where our kids can once again make cars and fridges and ac units and robotics in the way that our fathers did.

This war of economics started in the 80's. Trumps here to put an end of it for the benefit of his country and people.

Edit: look up the spreadsheets between the USA and china. The USA is still the richer country. Its still the stronger economic power.

Trump knows what he is doing.
The USSR went broke because of the inherent deficiency of communism not because of the US in Afghanistan.

The little communists in China can fck off as well. Trump should let them twist in the wind.
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      10-08-2019, 09:06 AM   #8
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He will cave when he needs a "win" and a boost in the polls. It'll be the greatest most terrific deal ever, just wait.
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      10-08-2019, 11:35 AM   #9
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He won't cave in the sense that he admits as such. However, look no further than the USMCA which is little more than a rebranded NAFTA with some slight tweaks. The China deal will very likely be something substantially similar to what we had in the past but with some slight tweaks. From what anyone can tell, the US and China are an ocean apart when it comes to a full fledged agreement on IP theft and currency manipulation.


However, if it results in a reduction of tariffs thats a good thing at this point and Trump knows that. He's effectively created a foil that he can then solve. AKA, shite the bed....scream about who shite the bed and then take credit for cleaning it up.
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      10-08-2019, 11:42 AM   #10
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China is not doing well. Slowest growth in 26 years. Major problems internally!

Sunday, more money was released to China's banks. Why do that if the economy is growing at a 6 percent rate and everything's fine and dandy? Answer: it’s not growing at 6 percent despite what Beijing says. The Wall Street Journal has looked at a variety of indicators suggesting much lower growth, much higher unemployment and a sharp drop in China's exports to America. Their economy is seriously struggling.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...amid-trade-war <--All the VC money is drying up VERY fast.

Trust me China has serious problems if you actually do the research. If all you read if news stations which say Orange Man Bad, than you probably think China is some how willing the trade war. They are losing by the day and are in serious trouble. Even if the trade war stops I am not sure they will be ok.

Trump should put the pressure on HARD now. We have them almost where we want them.
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      10-08-2019, 11:44 AM   #11
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Will us manufacturers be able to produce in China with more than 49% ownership in any investment? I think that will answer any question. But what will stop the Chinese from stopping the intellectual property theft? Will there be an agreement to stop that?
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      10-08-2019, 11:48 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Torgus View Post
China is not doing well. Slowest growth in 26 years. Major problems internally!

Sunday, more money was released to China's banks. Why do that if the economy is growing at a 6 percent rate and everything's fine and dandy? Answer: it’s not growing at 6 percent despite what Beijing says. The Wall Street Journal has looked at a variety of indicators suggesting much lower growth, much higher unemployment and a sharp drop in China's exports to America. Their economy is seriously struggling.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...amid-trade-war <--All the VC money is drying up VERY fast.

Trust me China has serious problems if you actually do the research. If all you read if news stations which say Orange Man Bad, than you probably think China is some how willing the trade war. They are losing by the day and are in serious trouble. Even if the trade war stops I am not sure they will be ok.

Trump should put the pressure on HARD now. We have them almost where we want them.
China is certainly hurting from this and a whole host of other issues.....political, economic and socioeconomic. However, they have an advantage that we don't, which is time coupled with state control. Just like China is experiencing a slowdown, so are we. Our manufacturing and farming industries are in a technical recession...in part due to the trade war. Trump has an election to win next year. Xi never has an election again. Ever.

If this is a case of the immovable object versus the unstoppable force, well, one side has the advantage of time and the other does not. I think both sides tap out with some modest concessions which result in a reduction of tariffs.
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      10-08-2019, 02:37 PM   #13
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I agree that the Chinese economy is suffering but most of the Chinese are pretty poor to begin with. Most working class Chinese is making on average about $300 a month and the upper class is making about $1000 a month. So most of them probably don't have a lot to lose. So the Chinese probably don't have a lot of incentives for a trade deal. If they get a little poorer, so what?

Countries like North Korea, Iran, the old Cuba even being fairly poor but they can survive.
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      10-08-2019, 03:18 PM   #14
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I firmly believe China is a massive house of cards. They can only exist if they keep increasing and growing year over year, that is not sustainable. Way too many businesses propped up by the government etc.

You can only print money and play shell games for so long. The SECOND it really starts to fall apart it will be VERY quick. Look into their banking industry. Likely a massive humanitarian crisis when the currency is not worth shit and people have no food. Millions upon millions will starve to death but at least the people will be free from socialism and communism.

https://www.ft.com/content/4c66b622-...3-db5a370481bc

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-...om-11570359601

The 4 largest banks are run by the Government which is shady and they still participate in questionable business practices.

Last edited by Torgus; 10-08-2019 at 03:25 PM..
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      10-08-2019, 03:44 PM   #15
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Maybe we can get the Chinese and Iran shooting each other.
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      10-08-2019, 10:09 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
Maybe we can get the Chinese and Iran shooting each other.
The british took toppled china by introducing opium. Now they sent fentanyl abroad to the west.

Hmmm.
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      10-08-2019, 10:36 PM   #17
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Screw Winnie the Pooh, it's going to go hot with them eventually so might as well try to cripple them economically and sow social unrest to make changes without us getting involved. They're been fucking us over for decades, hell with 'em and their cheap shit we don't need anyway.

It's hilarious watching all these self righteous "woke" folks, especially in the NBA right now falling over themselves to suck at China's tits. I knew these people were revolting but to see it in action like this is a sight to behold. All for the almighty dollar, these people are frauds.
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      10-09-2019, 04:03 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
He will cave when he needs a "win" and a boost in the polls. It'll be the greatest most terrific deal ever, just wait.
It'll be YUGE and BIGLY
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      10-09-2019, 06:13 PM   #19
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In chronological order:

1. Nixon visited China in 1972.
2. During the 1980's there was some fear China may become disorganized with their large poor population with nothing better to do and may become another modern Syria.
3. After Tiananmen Square, for whatever reason, starting 1990's on, the big West corporations start setting shops in China taking advantage of cheap labors and non-existing environmental concerns. We got cheap stuffs and they got air pollution the equivalent of everybody driving an M3 here :-).
4. China becomes wealthy. They start building up their military and start threatening the surrounding South East Asian countries and regions.
5. Trump doesn't like it very much and using the trade war to reign them in.

At least that's the official version. There may be actual beef we don't know.
What will happen? Who knows. I guess that's the price to pay for cheap stuffs and pretty secretary's make up :-)
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      10-09-2019, 10:43 PM   #20
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...=mw_latestnews

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Bloomberg News reported Wednesday night that the White House may implement a previously-agreed-upon currency deal with China ahead of schedule, and suspend tariff hikes scheduled to take effect next week. Those moves would be part of a first-phase agreement with China, Bloomberg said, with negotiations on critical issues such as intellectual-property rights and forced technology transfers coming later in phase two.
What is this "currency deal"? Never heard of that term before ever since the trade war began.
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      10-10-2019, 07:16 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...=mw_latestnews



What is this "currency deal"? Never heard of that term before ever since the trade war began.
An exchange rate agreement

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-partial-deal
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      10-10-2019, 10:47 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
It seems like it is meant to prevent the Chinese from de-valuing their currency to counteract the US increase in tariffs. But it seems like a minor part of the trade deal and the main part is the forced technology transfer and IP protection and ownership. Currently I don't think outside entities can have ownership of Chinese companies.
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