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      03-03-2020, 10:25 AM   #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
Sorry for OT, but as someone who will be mortgaging their first house soon, is this a preferred site to check rates?
It's the one I use to get a reference for negotiating/comparing rates. I like to use my credit union for my mortgages but sometimes their rates are not competitive. Especially in a dynamic rate environment like we have now. I have never used any of the mortgage companies on bankrate, but would if it meant getting 50bp.
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      03-03-2020, 10:37 AM   #156
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I just looked at Chase Bank and their 15 year fixed rate is 2.5% & APR is 2.625%. I may give them a call and see what that looks like especially if BOA won't go any lower than 3.125%.
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      03-03-2020, 11:09 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
Sorry for OT, but as someone who will be mortgaging their first house soon, is this a preferred site to check rates?
I used Sebonic / Cardinal Financial from Bank Rate for a small mortgage on a vacation condo last year because they had the lowest rates / fees I could find. Overall it went ok, but they are pretty stringent once you lock rates and there are no options to float down if rates further decrease. You are basically stuck paying extension fees. This is not unusual for lenders but they have zero wiggle room while others may have some. When our (new construction) condo was delayed, I had to negotiate with the seller to pay extension fees, which they sort of did so it worked out in the end.

The only other issue I had with them is they sold the loan to a shit outfit last month and that Company’s customer service sucks. But that can happen with any lender.

Our primary home is with Quicken Loans. Their customer service is excellent but they couldn’t match what we got from Bank Rate.
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      03-03-2020, 11:13 AM   #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corn18 View Post
Gotcha. I'm sure with the emergency Fed rate cut of 50bp, rates will fall even more. And I had just convinced myself to just pay cash for the new house.
Paying cash for a house is misuse of money with how cheap home loans are and what you can expect to make in the market over the next 15-30 years.
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      03-03-2020, 11:17 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by corn18 View Post
The loans I am looking at are 30 year fixed, conforming (<$510,400), no PMI and I am seeing 2.75% with no points pop up occasionally on bankrate.com

With inflation running 2%, that's a 75 bp spread and that is awesome. I hope I can get better than 0.75% interest on my money. But it sure has been nice not having a mortgage.
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Originally Posted by roastbeef View Post
Yes, 3.125% for 30 years fixed. I would have liked to do a 15, but I want the flexibility to pay off my rentals sooner and then use that income to pay extra on the mortgage.
Wow, that's crazy - I thought you might just be referring to the amortization term...but if you can lock in that rate for 15-30 years, then why wouldn't you.

Longest I've seen here is 10 year. And those are probably 5-6%. Thanks for letting me know.
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      03-03-2020, 11:23 AM   #160
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I don’t see the reason for the rate cut, based on fundamentals.

Interviewee this morning on Bloomberg Radio said we are 50% through a 20 year up market. This feels right to me. Look at the fundamentals.
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      03-03-2020, 11:42 AM   #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grocerylist View Post
Paying cash for a house is misuse of money with how cheap home loans are and what you can expect to make in the market over the next 15-30 years.
I know, but there are 2 sides to mortgages: numbers and emotion.
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      03-03-2020, 03:42 PM   #162
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I don't think rates have bottomed out yet. All the logistics for every sector are being all fucked up, this will continue to ripple. This isn't a health epidemic emergency this is a global supply chain problem. The fed sees that they want to make money cheaper to borrow as this will have adverse affect on industry's ability to do business if they can not settle their supply chain.

Not sure lovering rates is gonna help this situation but it will make money cheaper to borrow.

I have a 4.25 I singed last year I'm gonna wait a few more days I think rates are gonna trend lower with the rate cut.
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      03-03-2020, 04:09 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by bimmerfrk View Post
I don't think rates have bottomed out yet. All the logistics for every sector are being all fucked up, this will continue to ripple. This isn't a health epidemic emergency this is a global supply chain problem. The fed sees that they want to make money cheaper to borrow as this will have adverse affect on industry's ability to do business if they can not settle their supply chain.

Not sure lovering rates is gonna help this situation but it will make money cheaper to borrow.

I have a 4.25 I singed last year I'm gonna wait a few more days I think rates are gonna trend lower with the rate cut.
Maybe wait until after the first of the month-- that's when my credit union says that they'll revisit their rates as the drop today was more of a "bank to bank" thing than a consumer thing. It takes a while for it to flow to the "little people".
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      03-03-2020, 05:20 PM   #164
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China cargo flow returning to pre virus levels.

https://www.benzinga.com/node/15470668

Fed rate cut.

Economic fundamentals strong.

Nothing scary here.
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      03-03-2020, 05:26 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by chassis View Post
China cargo flow returning to pre virus levels.

https://www.benzinga.com/node/15470668

Fed rate cut.

Economic fundamentals strong.

Nothing scary here.
Yea... not sure on this one yet. And who is this news source..... stay chill and frosty. Shit is still playing out this ain't no encore... yet.
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      03-03-2020, 06:50 PM   #166
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cargometrics.com is the data source. Benzinga was the easiest reporting site I could find.
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      03-03-2020, 07:48 PM   #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grocerylist View Post
Paying cash for a house is misuse of money with how cheap home loans are and what you can expect to make in the market over the next 15-30 years.
i would rather just not pay the $2k in interest every month and invest that and have a paid for house.

using that logic, i should do a cash-out refi to invest in mutual funds.
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      03-03-2020, 08:23 PM   #168
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Trying to time the market is so dumb. You will assuredly lose long term. It's been this way forever. If you're not planning on retiring anytime soon and have an emergency fund, stay in. Literally, this is investing 101.

And yes, I'm well aware that we will prob be down another 10% between now and April.
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      03-03-2020, 08:28 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by XutvJet View Post
Sounds like you're doing ok. I say ok because you do live in a pricey part of the country and you didn't provide your net worth, just your assets. Regardless, you're still ahead of the majority for you're age assuming you're not carrying some huge note on a home in a terrible area. Maxing your 401K is a solid choice assuming you've got good investment options, the match is good, etc. I'd definitely look into other investment options too like a Roth, brokerage, etc.

I do agree that a correction is coming in the near future (i.e. sometime between next week and deep into 2021 ), but you're young. You have lots of time to make back losses. You will get lit up in the investment world. That's inevitable. You'll have a few big losses followed by a lot HUGE gains assuming you're well invested and smart. As others have noted, timing the market is crazy difficult. I've lost massive sums of money over the past 25 years in the market. However, I never sold during the crashes and stuck to my plan. The only things that changed was that I wised up with the things I was invested in.

I'm 45 and I'm well aware that I'll likely lose 20-30%, maybe worse, of my portfolio's value sometime in the next 2 years. I also know that in the 2 to 5 years following I'll make back all of it plus another huge sum. The only thing I'm doing in preparation to ease the pain is that I plan to sell a small portion of my portfolio in the near future and the proceeds will then serve as my "war chest" when the market tumbles so that I can purchase blue chips and similar at highly disconnected prices.

My Roth, company 401k, traditional IRA, and brokerage account are heavily invested in S&P 500 index funds (~65%) and ~15% in Berkshire Class B and the remainder in a handful of bond, money, small cap funds, and random stocks (for fun). It's done extremely well for me over the years.
This post should be stickied. Fantastic advice!!!!
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      03-08-2020, 07:02 PM   #170
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Monday’s gonna be ugly. Glad I hung on to a little DWT to partially mitigate everything else. Wish I hung onto more of it, but not really meant for holding onto.
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      03-08-2020, 07:24 PM   #171
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Futures point to 1000 point drop on Monday. I think when the stock markets realize the FED may not be able to do much, it could be ugly.

Is there a silver lining? If there are some news that the virus is somewhat contained, you could see a spring-loaded rally and a 2000 DOW point gain possible.

"Be greedy when others are fearful."
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      03-08-2020, 08:37 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
Futures point to 1000 point drop on Monday. I think when the stock markets realize the FED may not be able to do much, it could be ugly.

Is there a silver lining? If there are some news that the virus is somewhat contained, you could see a spring-loaded rally and a 2000 DOW point gain possible.

"Be greedy when others are fearful."
It's scary when you lose $10k in one day. Or more...but the bottom line is that everyone needs to stay in and not panic.
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      03-08-2020, 09:04 PM   #173
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If you wake up and hear that NY city closes its subway systems ... I don't even know how the market will react.

People working for Microsoft in Seattle are being asked to stay home and not going to work.

But if you're trading, you could be caught from the other side.

Quote:
Futures on the S&P 500 were halted Sunday night after they declined 5%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles...=mw_latestnews

On the other side ...
Quote:
Hedge-fund manager who called the coronavirus market meltdown says selloff is overdone, covers short positions
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...=mw_latestnews

Last edited by WestRace; 03-08-2020 at 09:21 PM..
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      03-09-2020, 06:57 AM   #174
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Future show us at 24,500 already lol... Oil crashed to $32 a barrel.


Will 20K be a number people finally realize that it's here after many years?
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      03-09-2020, 07:03 AM   #175
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24,500 and 32 is just where we open today....

If nyc closed school. Then people can't work someone has to watch the kids. If they shutdown the subway... at that point they should just quarantine the entire city. If that happens I have no idea how far this could go.

NYC is the financial capital of the world... impact would not be small.
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      03-09-2020, 07:12 AM   #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bimmerfrk View Post
24,500 and 32 is just where we open today....

If nyc closed school. Then people can't work someone has to watch the kids. If they shutdown the subway... at that point they should just quarantine the entire city. If that happens I have no idea how far this could go.

NYC is the financial capital of the world... impact would not be small.
Slow down; all major (and many other) firms have contingency plans, pandemic plans and work-from-home plans. Especially in NYC. We will see disruption if schools/subways are closed, but work will continue. In fact, there likely will be a huge Wall Street competitive advantage in being at work (regardless of work location) while others are scrambling to implement their plans.
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