[eleven11]

My 2020 X5 lease will be ending in October 2022. Traditionally, I've leased with BMW every 36 months, and meticulously crunched numbers, etc. I'm tired, so was hoping you all can give me some quick feedback and recommendations.

I'm leaning toward a 5 series (G30) vs purchasing my X5. Pre-pandemic, I've always been able to negotiate a capitalized cost 9-10% below MSRP. I understand this isn't possible now. Also, I've always ordered these vehicles, and the non-South Carolina options generally arrive in 8-10 weeks. From what I gather, this isn't likely now.

Questions:

1. Cap Cost - it's July 2022 and I'm located in 40299. What should I be aiming for? MSRP? Below?
2. Custom Order - Forum posts describe several month wait times. I assume that's still likely, but curious if things are improving now?

Thoughts:

• Using current MF (poor) and residuals (reasonable), and an estimated cap cost at MSRP, the calculated payments for a G30 lease are expectedly higher than the past. For comparable monthly payments, I'm looking at a G30 that's $20-25,000 lower MSRP versus the X5. I like the X5 (M50), but always like the peace of mind of having something new that will always be under warranty.
  
• Assuming a custom order isn't possible with such wait times, is it easier to work with my local dealership to search national inventories or work with someone like Automatch (Tom McParland)?

I really appreciate any feedback.

[LuvMyE92]

Wow, I'm surprised that no one has responded yet. Here are my thoughts:

Questions:

1. MSRP is a good target these days. I am a very good customer with my dealer and can get a small discount, theoretically, but they have no cars. If you can get a car without an additional markup these days, you're doing good.
2. Things do not seem to be improving.

Thoughts:

• I concur, a warranty is nice.
• I don't think many dealers are going to want to part with any existing inventory. A broker would likely be better.

Further thought: What is the value of your X5 versus lease buyout? You may have an arbitrage situation there.

.

[eleven11]

Originally Posted by LuvMyE92

What is the value of your X5 versus lease buyout? You may have an arbitrage situation there.

.

I appreciate your input.

At the lease end, it's approximately $54,000. They also have around $8,500 of my MSD, which I'd apply to the buyout. I briefly spoke with them in November 2021, and they mentioned roughly $5,500 of accrued value that can be applied if I entered a new lease at that time (which I assume has no benefit to me at this stage?).

[HerkHealer]

I have never leased a car. I just dont think its worth it. You end up paying just a hundred less than what it would cost to own the vehicle monthly. And then the dealership can nickel and dime you on every mile, scratch, wheel rub, tires, etc...
I feel Leases are just a way for them to make more money IMO.

I'm a huge fan of buying 1 to 2 year old cars with plenty left on Factory Warranty. You dont suffer the depreciation and still get a great vehicle at a bargain. That would be my advice.

[ztx84]

Don't lease. It is the most expensive way to operate a vehicle. There's a reason why the dealers push lease (PCP in the UK) as the first option (it makes them the most money!) If you are happy with your existing car - buy it out (for cash) and keep it.

[eleven11]

Originally Posted by HerkHealer

I have never leased a car...

Originally Posted by ztx84

Don't lease...

Thank you both for the replies. I'm aware that leasing is never the thrifty option, and have extensively performed comparative calculations in the past. With historical plans of getting something new every 3 years (which I understand is a luxury, non-thrifty decision), leasing comes out ahead. However, everything has changed, hence my questions. Before posting, I already knew my likely answer and decision (purchase my X5), but wanted to get a grasp on the situation with pricing and timing.

[HerkHealer]

Originally Posted by eleven11

Thank you both for the replies. I'm aware that leasing is never the thrifty option, and have extensively performed comparative calculations in the past. With historical plans of getting something new every 3 years (which I understand is a luxury, non-thrifty decision), leasing comes out ahead. However, everything has changed, hence my questions. Before posting, I already knew my likely answer and decision (purchase my X5), but wanted to get a grasp on the situation with pricing and timing.

yup! Buy it, own it, do what you want to it. Dont worry about looking at mileage, scratches, wheel rubs, etc....just ENJOY your ride.

[cna90]

Originally Posted by eleven11

Thank you both for the replies. I'm aware that leasing is never the thrifty option, and have extensively performed comparative calculations in the past. With historical plans of getting something new every 3 years (which I understand is a luxury, non-thrifty decision), leasing comes out ahead. However, everything has changed, hence my questions. Before posting, I already knew my likely answer and decision (purchase my X5), but wanted to get a grasp on the situation with pricing and timing.

Prices are pretty volatile rn so I won't chime in there.
A side note maybe;
although those %10 discounts don't exist anymore, you can always shop around and sell/trade in your car before returning it at lease end.
Brand new car is now more expensive than what they used to be when you picked up yours 3 years ago. Used car market is hot rn. You probably can make the %10 trading your car in vs returning it at the end of the lease. That trade in value gets you close to 10% depending on the mileage of your car.
Specially if you have a good relationship with the dealer, they make money on MSRP selling and also on reselling your car while with returning lease, it usually goes to BMW financial and then dealers will bid to win and resell.
If they buy it off you, they can make money on it right now.
Good luck with your new G30. Loved the previous X5 gen a lot and haven't been able to get comfortable with new ones. Although interior got a big update with new ones.
Also because of the supply chain lots of leases can be extended upto 6 months until you get your new car or make a decision. I know some financier will not sure if BMW is one of them. Doesn't hurt to ask to make a decision or your ordered car arrives.
Hope this helps

[eleven11]

Originally Posted by HerkHealer

yup! Buy it, own it, do what you want to it. Dont worry about looking at mileage, scratches, wheel rubs, etc....just ENJOY your ride.

Of course. The X5 is not my daily driver. I extensively modify my other rides, so I might play around with the X5.

Originally Posted by cna90

Prices are pretty volatile rn so I won't chime in there...

Thanks for the recommendations. I dropped by my dealership today to get the ball rolling. While they didn't speak specific numbers, they did indicate a likely appreciative effect of the X5, should I seek a new lease (in consideration of the 10% talk). Also, they did mention up to a 6 months extension in the event I order something.

[BMW012]

Correct, you currently should have positive equity on your X5, which you can roll into your next vehicle. Search KBB, to see roughly how much equity you have vs your payoff amount.

[LuvMyE92]

Originally Posted by cna90

Prices are pretty volatile rn so I won't chime in there.

LOL, I had to read his/her post six times before I figured out what "rn" meant.

[cna90]

Originally Posted by LuvMyE92

LOL, I had to read his/her post six times before I figured out what "rn" meant.

Haha sorry. That's the millennial in me. I hate doing it.