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      02-16-2020, 09:12 AM   #1
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Is this the end of a new ICE age?

I'm not going to debate the pros and cons of an electric versus internal combustion. That topic has been beaten to death. I'm saying when will all vehicles be all electric and would you miss internal combustion engines?

This will also include lawn & farming equipment, various toys and machinery.

How far will this go? Will we eliminate charcoal/fire cooking? Making sous vide steak and pan frying it on an induction cooktop?

I'm getting nostalgic thinking about raw and mechanical stuff.

An Apple Watch is much more useful than a Rolex or an Omega but damn it I still love my GMT and Speedmaster. Granted these mechanical trinkets don't expel harmful gases but the skills and craftsmanship to make them are breath taking. Much like the complexity of good ICE vehicle.

Future cars will be just like digital watches; perfect, simple, precise but will they have "souls" or characters?

END RANT.

What are you views of a world with all electric machines?

(We still don't have flying cars yet and it's 20 years after scientists predicted)
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      02-16-2020, 09:18 AM   #2
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I'm all for it.

I view the EV trend like any other trend in the world. For 99% of the public, it's a good thing. Those of us outside of that trend will still find enjoyment with ICE cars.

Given that passenger vehicle emissions account for a ludicrously small percentage of the problem, I imagine that cars will be grandfathered in and only new cars will be hit hard with restrictions.

I'll keep driving loud and farty cars forever.
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      02-16-2020, 09:19 AM   #3
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So I don't think (I've said it before at nauseam) that ICE is going anywhere anytime soon. EV's are coming but I think it will be decades before they are the lion share of the vehicles in use.

I doubt I'll ever own one but who knows. My view is that EV's are like a digital watch, no soul. I like mechanical things, I love my Omega and Rolex, my phone keeps better time but theres no moving parts. I'm old school.
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      02-16-2020, 09:22 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Soterios View Post
I'm all for it.

I view the EV trend like any other trend in the world. For 99% of the public, it's a good thing. Those of us outside of that trend will still find enjoyment with ICE cars.

Given that passenger vehicle emissions account for a ludicrously small percentage of the problem, I imagine that cars will be grandfathered in and only new cars will be hit hard with restrictions.

I'll keep driving loud and farty cars forever.
I wish I could afford an MPPSK for my 440i right now so I can make it loud and farty!
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      02-16-2020, 09:26 AM   #5
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I'm 43, ICE will be around if I live until 100.

Your great great grand kids might see the end of ICE, but doubtful.

In the meantime, choices and competition are great.
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      02-16-2020, 09:28 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by GenXer View Post
I wish I could afford an MPPSK for my 440i right now so I can make it loud and farty!
Go nuts!


Honestly I don't think this debate is really even that new. Every few years the car industry does something that the 'purists' hate and they swear it off.

"I'll never own a car with ABS"

"I'll never own an OBD2 car!"

"I'll never own a car with traction control"


I have plenty of friends that just won't buy anything newer than 95 still. Heh.
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      02-16-2020, 09:48 AM   #7
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"According to the EPA, motor vehicles collectively cause 75 percent of carbon monoxide pollution in the U.S. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) estimates that on-road vehicles cause one-third of the air pollution that produces smog in the U.S., and transportation causes 27 percent of greenhouse gas emissions."

The stats noted above may be debatable based upon the source, but the reality is that ICE vehicle emissions produce environmentally harmful emissions.

Transportation evolution from horse-power to ICE....from ICE to EV....from EV to fuel-cell vehicles....the evolution continues.

As an example, how long will the mechanical and design intelligence of the S54's VANOS be utilized? Or the sophistication of twin-turbos? Unsure how long ICE will live, but change is eminent.

When will 12,000 horsepower Top Fuel dragsters running on Nitromethane be extinct? Their 0-100 MPH in 0.7 seconds (yes, that's seven-tenths of a second) stats are surreal, but how much quicker will they be when/if they are EV powered and the torque curve is straight up?

There will be a time when EV vehicles are relics.

I love my S54 powered Z4M Red Roadster....it will always have a place in my care....for now.
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      02-16-2020, 10:00 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by racerbruce View Post
"According to the EPA, motor vehicles collectively cause 75 percent of carbon monoxide pollution in the U.S. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) estimates that on-road vehicles cause one-third of the air pollution that produces smog in the U.S., and transportation causes 27 percent of greenhouse gas emissions."

The stats noted above may be debatable based upon the source, but the reality is that ICE vehicle emissions produce environmentally harmful emissions.

Transportation evolution from horse-power to ICE....from ICE to EV....from EV to fuel-cell vehicles....the evolution continues.

As an example, how long will the mechanical and design intelligence of the S54's VANOS be utilized? Or the sophistication of twin-turbos? Unsure how long ICE will live, but change is eminent.

When will 12,000 horsepower Top Fuel dragsters running on Nitromethane be extinct? Their 0-100 MPH in 0.7 seconds (yes, that's seven-tenths of a second) stats are surreal, but how much quicker will they be when/if they are EV powered and the torque curve is straight up?

There will be a time when EV vehicles are relics.

I love my S54 powered Z4M Red Roadster....it will always have a place in my care....for now.
So a couple of points, many folks don't except the argument that C02 is the problem. No need to start another debate, I"m just sayin'.

I don't think Top Fuel drag racers will be replaced by EV's, I suspect there won't be enough interest in that, the same as I don't believe that F1, Nascar etc will be replaced by EV as I don't think the folks that like any of those sports will feel the love for cars that run on batteries. Not enough anyway for it to continue. I could be wrong but time will tell as with everything else.

EV's are coming, will they completely replace ICE, maybe. If the science and collective thinking agree that ICE is the cause of all our problems then probably. But just the transition from a logistical point of view would take decades even if folks were willing to make the change and give up ICE, from what the market shows that's just not happening. If it was government wouldn't have to give people incentives to buy EV's which are only at about 1-2% of the sales now.
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      02-16-2020, 10:01 AM   #9
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Until EVs can be used to drive long distances without have to spend 30-60 minutes for a "fast charge" they will be, in general limited to local usage. Especially as finding a charging station in more remote / rural areas may not be easy.

As the OP mentioned lawn equipment, the desired to make more and devices be battery powered is short sighted. For instance, in the 70s we had an electric lawn mower. That thing was great and it worked for over 30 years. Yeah the cord at times was a PITA and it got replaced after being run over more than once. But the cost of the cord was and continues to be far less than replacement batteries. I'll take corded tools over battery tools.
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      02-16-2020, 10:11 AM   #10
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Ooh and only twice the price of my Cub Cadet !

https://www.homedepot.com/p/RYOBI-38...8110/300246266
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      02-16-2020, 10:14 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeEmVe View Post
Until EVs can be used to drive long distances without have to spend 30-60 minutes for a "fast charge" they will be, in general limited to local usage. Especially as finding a charging station in more remote / rural areas may not be easy.

As the OP mentioned lawn equipment, the desired to make more and devices be battery powered is short sighted. For instance, in the 70s we had an electric lawn mower. That thing was great and it worked for over 30 years. Yeah the cord at times was a PITA and it got replaced after being run over more than once. But the cost of the cord was and continues to be far less than replacement batteries. I'll take corded tools over battery tools.
This, I have a battery powered lawn mower which cost about the same as a basic no fills gas mower. I have had the thing 3 years and am on my 3rd battery which isn't charging so I'll have to deal with this in the spring. The first battery crapped out after about 2 months, and was replaced on warranty, the second battery was replaced last year for $250 and is now pooched. I cut my grass every week or so for about 7 months of the year and my property is 60' x 120'. So about $750 in batteries. If I was using a gas mower I wouldn't spend $50 on gas in 20 years and the thing would last that long with nothing more than some fresh oil and maybe the odd spark plug replacement. This is not giving me confidence regarding battery tech.....don't even ask me about my cell phone battery experience......
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      02-16-2020, 10:19 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
This, I have a battery powered lawn mower which cost about the same as a basic no fills gas mower. I have had the thing 3 years and am on my 3rd battery which isn't charging so I'll have to deal with this in the spring. The first battery crapped out after about 2 months, and was replaced on warranty, the second battery was replaced last year for $250 and is now pooched. I cut my grass every week or so for about 7 months of the year and my property is 60' x 120'. So about $750 in batteries. If I was using a gas mower I wouldn't spend $50 on gas in 20 years and the thing would last that long with nothing more than some fresh oil and maybe the odd spark plug replacement. This is not giving me confidence regarding battery tech.....don't even ask me about my cell phone battery experience......
So, no to the battery power lawn mower?

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      02-16-2020, 10:19 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
This, I have a battery powered lawn mower which cost about the same as a basic no fills gas mower. I have had the thing 3 years and am on my 3rd battery which isn't charging so I'll have to deal with this in the spring. The first battery crapped out after about 2 months, and was replaced on warranty, the second battery was replaced last year for $250 and is now pooched. I cut my grass every week or so for about 7 months of the year and my property is 60' x 120'. So about $750 in batteries. If I was using a gas mower I wouldn't spend $50 on gas in 20 years and the thing would last that long with nothing more than some fresh oil and maybe the odd spark plug replacement. This is not giving me confidence regarding battery tech.....don't even ask me about my cell phone battery experience......
Well. If we're giving anecdotes. My battery powered mower on a similar lot was $250 three years ago (with two batteries) both original batteries are still in excellent condition. Mows the heck out of my lawn.
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      02-16-2020, 10:30 AM   #14
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It's easier to justify spending $3k on an electric lawn mower since it will always be driven on your property. If you could swap batteries, you will never run out of power. I have 5 LiIon batteries for my various garden equipment and they last forever. I always have a constant supply of power. At least one will always be charging.

Sinking $50K into something that may or may not get to a charger seems iffy to me.

I think Honda had the right idea of electrifying the road with constant induction point so you can either run off the grid or use your own power. Either way you will never run out. Unfortunately that is going to take monumental infrastructure and governmental involvement.
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      02-16-2020, 12:12 PM   #15
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Battery recycling, electrical "filling" station infrastructure, miles per "tank", and speed of charging needs further work. Not insurmountable challenges, but challenges nevertheless.

The tremendous (many billions of dollars and thousands of jobs) of investment in ICE technology means that the status quo has an interest in seeing its legacy continued. Expect to see continuous aggressive development to improve ICE for transportation applications.

A non-transportation use of ICEs, electrical power generation, has no alternative to burning things.
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      02-16-2020, 12:15 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GenXer View Post
It's easier to justify spending $3k on an electric lawn mower since it will always be driven on your property. If you could swap batteries, you will never run out of power. I have 5 LiIon batteries for my various garden equipment and they last forever. I always have a constant supply of power. At least one will always be charging.

Sinking $50K into something that may or may not get to a charger seems iffy to me.

I think Honda had the right idea of electrifying the road with constant induction point so you can either run off the grid or use your own power. Either way you will never run out. Unfortunately that is going to take monumental infrastructure and governmental involvement.
Motor Mouth: Facts are superfluous to the EV crowd
Pie-in-the-sky ideas at Automobility conference in Los Angeles ignore basic realities

by DAVID BOOTH | NOVEMBER 25, 2016

A Mercedes electric drive car is plugged for charging during the second press day of the 66th IAA auto show in Frankfurt, Germany.Daniel Roland / AFP/Getty Images

I think I finally understand how Donald Trump got elected. No, I have no special insight into the mind of Breitbart’s “alt-right” agenda or any magical poll numbers not already dissected by every news agency on the planet. Instead, my 20/20 hindsight was gleaned at the recent Automobility conference in, of all places, Los Angeles.

What’s an electric vehicle conference in La-La Land have to do with the Trumpian electoral college triumph, you ask?

Just this. Automobility — and conferences of its ilk — are supposedly the automobile industry’s best foot forward, where the brightest minds in the business meet to discuss and, yes, argue about what the future of personal transportation five, 10 and even 20 years hence might look like. That’s what they’re supposed to be.

Instead, what I witnessed was the same fact-free, divorced-from-reality lack of critical thinking that let The Donald claim that Mexico was going to pay for the 80-foot-high wall (oops, now a fence!) and that he would balance the budget through a magical combination of lowering taxes and increasing spending.

Take, for instance, the speech of Pasquale Romano, president and CEO of ChargePoint. Now, never mind that electric vehicles — the kind that rely on electricity, not those pesky hybrids that EV purists secretly detest — barely account for half a percentage point of current auto sales. Or that the market for electrified vehicles — now including those pesky hybrids — has been stagnating at around 3 per cent of market share for the better part of a decade.

Ignore all that because Romano says that, by 2018 or 2019, the ownership/running costs of electric cars are going to so undercut the operating costs of a traditional gasoline car that automakers are going to start having a hard time selling internal combustion. And, as a result of this rapid drop-off in gasoline-fuelled car sales, gas stations are going to close. So dramatic, in fact, will be this drop-off in the purchase of new fossil-fuelled vehicles, says Romano, that as early as 2020 or so, consumers will start having trouble finding gasoline to fill up their parched gas tanks. “It won’t be long before drivers start suffering from ‘gas anxiety,’ not range anxiety,” contends Romano.

Now, let’s pretend that there really aren’t 250 million gasoline fuelled cars in America today (minus, of course, the roughly 200,000 EVs Tesla, Nissan et al. have managed to peddle over the last five years). Or that, with an average life now spanning 11.6 years, a goodly chunk of those will still be spewing hydrocarbons into the atmosphere until at least 2025 and beyond, even if no one ever bought a single solitary internally combusting automobile ever again. No sooner had Mr. Romano sat down than Andrew Liu, vice-president of new ventures for AECOM, stood up and posited what would happen to all America’s now-bankrupt gas stations.

It seems, according to Mr. Liu, that some time ago, Elon Musk — ain’t it funny how his name comes up anytime the going gets really weird — posited that 10,000 square miles of solar panels would be enough to generate all the electricity America needs. This, Mr. Liu speculated, could be achieved by converting every one of those 115,000, now-abandoned gas stations into a mini solar panel farm. Indeed, said Mr. Liu, all those empty gas stations would then generate so much electricity that America would have an overabundance of clean energy. Yes, folks, the country that still gets about one third of its electricity from the dirtiest source possible — coal — is soon going to be so awash in emissions-free electrons in a decade or so that it won’t know what to do with all its renewable energy, all thanks to those disgusting gas stations.

But, wait, it gets even better.

Mr. Liu also sees a time not so very far away where all highways in the U.S. will feature inductive charging built right into the pavement. That means electric vehicles could recharge as they drive, becoming, in fact, perpetual motion machines, their batteries gaining charge, says Mr. Liu, the more they are driven.

Indeed, so grossly will they be overcharged, says Liu, that when owners arrive at home at night, said electric vehicles would be plugged into the grid — and here, there really should have been a tap of a top hat cymbal or at least a magician screaming “ta-da” — so they could actually replenish our energy stores. According to Liu, when owners of future EVs plug their cars into the grid, they will be doing so to put back energy back into the system, not take it out. Yes, you read that right — the electric car of the future will be recharging the grid, not the other way around. And, just to make sure we didn’t mistake his conjecture, Mr. Liu pulled out a little chart detailing how much these EV owners would be repaid for their largesse, also noting that said electric cars could supply as much as 15 per cent of a major city’s nighttime electrical needs.

Now, the most important part of this speech, at least for me, wasn’t so much the content as the fact that no one, not a single attendee, asked what in H-E-double-hockey-sticks Mr. Liu was smoking. Nobody asked what a complete network of inductively charged roadways would cost (you can find it in Motor Mouth). Nobody disputed the “fact” that every gas station in America would soon be closed. Nobody even questioned Mr. Romano’s timeline for the demise of the internal combustion engine. Indeed, not a single solitary soul challenged even one of these seemingly phantasmagorical prognostications.

Nor was electric propulsion the only source of contradictory bull patooties at this futuristic love-in. In the previous panel discussion dealing with autonomous cars, one protagonist mapped out a future free of traffic congestion thanks to the roboticized cars, while the very next presenter predicted a massive migration to the suburbs as a result of the pleasantness of their now three-hour commute into the city (he said something about cars now having hot-tubs) and no one even seemed to notice the contradiction.

It was like watching a Trump rally only with the misogynistic racism replaced by earnest, environmentally conscious piety. Nothing anyone said, regardless how outrageous or separated from reality, was questioned. Indeed, the toughest query anyone faced all day was one EV protagonist being asked about the road tax (a major component in the cost of a gallon of gas in the U.S. that is supposed to pay for highway infrastructure) and this was deflected with the greatest of ease. Otherwise, everyone just sat there with the placid smile of the Brave New World‘s Gamma, Delta or Epsilon just given their daily “half-gramme” of Soma.

Wonder not, then, how Trump’s legion ignored his loose interpretation of facts. Or how none of his diehard followers questioned any of his seemingly obvious failings. The other side of the political spectrum — this being California, you couldn’t find a Trump supporter in the house — are just as blindly faithful as the supposed “deplorables” they so love to denigrate.
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      02-16-2020, 12:45 PM   #17
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ICE cars will eventually go the way of the horse.

people still have horses to ride... but its for fun and leisure.. not for commuting. I will hold on to ICE as long as i can. I think EV sports cars will eventually have a mode that mimics NA/turbo engine sound and power delivery, even mimicking a shift with a temporary power cut. Sound systems will be so good by then they sub can mimic the vibration of an engine.
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      02-16-2020, 12:49 PM   #18
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ICE cars will eventually go the way of the horse.

people still have horses to ride... but its for fun and leisure.. not for commuting. I will hold on to ICE as long as i can. I think EV sports cars will eventually have a mode that mimics NA/turbo engine sound and power delivery, even mimicking a shift with a temporary power cut. Sound systems will be so good by then they sub can mimic the vibration of an engine.
This is something I just don't understand, why would anybody want a soundtrack to mimic an ICE from an EV ? That's garbage, here's an idea, drive an actual ICE, for what it's worth this is like having sex with a blow up doll.
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      02-16-2020, 02:04 PM   #19
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The current euphoria will wear off when the economic disadvantages of the new earth friendly (not so much) energy sources begin to reveal their detriments. Job loses and heavy metal landfills high energy demand to charge all the so called energy efficient batteries, etc., Lol... Wait for it!

And yes, I agree, we are all supposed to be George Jetsoning our way to work (flying cars)... Can't understand why we aren't!? Lol

With all the high HP vehicles becoming so common place, it'll take time for that segment of the market to give up, and the entire racing world isn't jumping on the electric bandwagon either. The ICE is safe for the foreseeable future, even if it now has competition in the consumer market. That's good too! Not sure if that didn help get too by pushing the 100hp per cylinder milestone or not. But the efficiency they're getting from ICE today is amazing really. At that HP, you could run milk getters with 2 or 3 cylinders and be happy (some people). And let's not forget wrenching... Can't wrench on batteries, so that market segment will also hold onto their sockets! Lol. Maybe in a few generations when all those born (later) know is Battery driven machinery, ICE and fossil fuel power generation of all types will disappear.

Just my $.02
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      02-16-2020, 05:39 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
This is something I just don't understand, why would anybody want a soundtrack to mimic an ICE from an EV ? That's garbage, here's an idea, drive an actual ICE, for what it's worth this is like having sex with a blow up doll.
i hear ya. but there are tons of people here who just lease and don't want the hassle of owning two cars for themselves. Or they are scared of owning a car out of warranty. Or they can't get a 20-30k loan for a 10 year old car. They want one car that can do it all.

We already have the F80 that is so refined that they had to pump sound inside to mimic the ICE sports cars of old.
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      02-16-2020, 07:27 PM   #21
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I'm not really sure the end is as close as some people make it out to be. Wikipedia (I'm too lazy to research any further than that ) claims EV market share was 2.1% in 2018. Soooo... I think it's just a vocal minority.

I mean what appealing EV options are out there in the market right now? If you were to ask me and I think most people, the first thing you think of is Tesla. Not to mention it's the only EV I see out on the road in any significant quantity.

However I think the top selling vehicles in the US are trucks and SUVs. The only EV options currently on the market for truck and suv owners is the model X as far as I know, which is ridiculously expensive. Couple of EV trucks in the works, but honestly, I'm not sure how well those will do. I guess we'll see when they come out, but I just don't see the end of this ICE age coming anytime soon. I do believe it will come, just not now. Plus who knows what new technology will come out by then that may or may not end up being better than EV.
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      02-16-2020, 07:30 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Humdizzle View Post
i hear ya. but there are tons of people here who just lease and don't want the hassle of owning two cars for themselves. Or they are scared of owning a car out of warranty. Or they can't get a 20-30k loan for a 10 year old car. They want one car that can do it all.

We already have the F80 that is so refined that they had to pump sound inside to mimic the ICE sports cars of old.
I've always been a raw ICE guy....V8's, straight 6's and now a very narly sounding flat 6.....the idea of driving an EV, I'd rather go to the dentist.
Appreciate 2
GenXer386.00
MKSixer19800.00

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