BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
BIMMERPOST Universal Forums General Automotive (non-BMW) Talk + Photos/Videos 2019 US EV Sales Decreased an Estimated 7% to 9% – 6 Reasons Why

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      03-10-2020, 01:09 PM   #1
Dog Face Pony Soldier
2006 TIME Person Of The Year
Dog Face Pony Soldier's Avatar
United_States
7766
Rep
5,817
Posts

Drives: M Sport 335i
Join Date: May 2013
Location: North Jersey

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 335i  [4.87]
The theory of EV inevitably in the US seems flawed when EV sales were notably DOWN last year. Yet the fanboys continue to turn a blind eye to the most-important factor in the automotive industry... SALES.

From evadoption follow the link for the full article and explanations behind the list of 6 reasons: https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sa...6-reasons-why/

1. 2018 Was a Monster Year for EV Sales

2. Tesla Model 3 Only Had "Modest" Growth

3. Significant Decline Among Top Selling Vehicles

4. Sales Declines for 63% of EV Models

5. No New High-Volume EVs Were Introduced

6. Limited Supply and Dealer Availability


2019 US EV Sales Decreased an Estimated 7% to 9% – 6 Reasons Why

2019 sales of electric vehicles in the US decreased 7% to 9% versus very strong sales growth in 2018, according to separate estimates from Edmunds and InsideEVs.

325,000 EVs (both BEV and PHEV) were sold in 2019 in the US according to an estimate from Edmunds released in a Los Angles Times article. This is a decrease of 6.88% from 349,000 units sold in 2018.

InsideEVs, which tracks EV sales through its Sales Scorecard, estimates 329,528 EV units were sold in 2019, roughly 4,500 more than Edmund's estimate and a decrease of 8.88% versus the higher 361,307 InsideEVs estimated for 2018.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, however, which publishes actual vehicle registrations using data from IHS Markit, lists a much lower 328,818 EVs sold in 2018. The Alliance updates its Advanced Technology Vehicle Sales Dashboard every few months with sales data that is typically only through about 4 months prior to the current date. The current data is updated through June of 2019 and so full-year 2019 data (now supplied by Hedges & Co.) is not expected until perhaps April or May.
Attached Images
  
__________________
Appreciate 2
      03-10-2020, 01:39 PM   #2
heavyD^2
Major
heavyD^2's Avatar
Canada
1163
Rep
1,218
Posts

Drives: X3M Competition
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Calgary, Alberta Canada

iTrader: (0)

I think sales were down across the board for plenty of automakers in 2019 as less people purchased vehicles so I don't take this as a bad sign for EV's going forward. I'm the first person to roll my eyes at the EV fanboys posting misinformation on the internet that EV's are taking over the market and ICE is dead but you can't ignore their growth over this decade is impressive and it's an inevitability that in the coming decades EV will surpass ICE vehicles on the road. I'm sure I will be driving an EV one day but as of now I'm very content driving ICE vehicles in their golden age.
Appreciate 1
F32Fleet1915.50

      03-10-2020, 01:47 PM   #3
Dog Face Pony Soldier
2006 TIME Person Of The Year
Dog Face Pony Soldier's Avatar
United_States
7766
Rep
5,817
Posts

Drives: M Sport 335i
Join Date: May 2013
Location: North Jersey

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 335i  [4.87]
Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyD^2 View Post
I think sales were down across the board for plenty of automakers in 2019 as less people purchased vehicles so I don't take this as a bad sign for EV's going forward. I'm the first person to roll my eyes at the EV fanboys posting misinformation on the internet that EV's are taking over the market and ICE is dead but you can't ignore their growth over this decade is impressive and it's an inevitability that in the coming decades EV will surpass ICE vehicles on the road. I'm sure I will be driving an EV one day but as of now I'm very content driving ICE vehicles in their golden age.
Are you saying there is a 7th reason they didn't list, and that the entire US automotive industry was also down a similar amount as EVs? Perhaps you're right, but do you know of any data backing up your hypothesis?
__________________
Appreciate 0
      03-10-2020, 01:57 PM   #4
heavyD^2
Major
heavyD^2's Avatar
Canada
1163
Rep
1,218
Posts

Drives: X3M Competition
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Calgary, Alberta Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
Are you saying there is a 7th reason they didn't list, and that the entire US automotive industry was also down a similar amount as EVs? Perhaps you're right, but do you know of any data backing up your hypothesis?
I'm just saying the entire industry was down in general in 2019. I believe tax credits being halved in the 2nd half of the year probably played some role in reduced sales as well there were logistical challenges of rolling out the model 3 in China and Europe, etc. I'm certainly not apologizing for their down sales as I find Tesla fanboys extremely annoying but I don't think this is big news for most grounded people that realize ICE vehicles aren't going anywhere for some time and this is more for the EV leg humpers to gain a little perspective.
Appreciate 0
      03-10-2020, 02:01 PM   #5
Dog Face Pony Soldier
2006 TIME Person Of The Year
Dog Face Pony Soldier's Avatar
United_States
7766
Rep
5,817
Posts

Drives: M Sport 335i
Join Date: May 2013
Location: North Jersey

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 335i  [4.87]
Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyD^2 View Post
I'm just saying the entire industry was down in general in 2019.
Respectfully (really, not in jest), I'm asking where that belief stems from. Perhaps later I'll search the web myself, but if you have evidence that the entire US auto industry was down in 2019 I'd be interested in seeing it.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      03-10-2020, 02:10 PM   #6
Conissah
Captain
Conissah's Avatar
1059
Rep
875
Posts

Drives: 2020 BMW M2C
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Charlotte, NC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
Are you saying there is a 7th reason they didn't list, and that the entire US automotive industry was also down a similar amount as EVs? Perhaps you're right, but do you know of any data backing up your hypothesis?
According to THIS SITE, US auto sales were down 1.9% in 2019.

The EV drop doesn't surprise me, the Tesla hype is seemingly dying down. Musk is scrambling to keep Tesla in the headlines, hence the Cybertruck... Gotta try and stay relevant. Although, Tesla did just cross the 1,000,000 vehicle mark.

With the Mach-E coming this year with a ton of pre-orders, I am interested to see how well they are received. It hits on all of the US HOT sales points by being an electric SUV with a good price point and decent range. The only caveat is that Ford has said the first year will be limited to 50,000 orders globally, and that is an awfully small number compared to a Rav4, which sold 200,610 units in 2019, or a CR-V (176,944 units), or a Rogue (175,267 units), or even a Tahoe with 53,795 units. All of those numbers are US sales only, so 50k globally sounds like a lot, but definitely isn't. Also, funny enough, over 25% of all pre-orders for the MachE are from which US state...? CALIFORNIA, who would've guessed??
Appreciate 2
      03-10-2020, 02:12 PM   #7
mkoesel
Moderator
United_States
5720
Rep
18,586
Posts

Drives: No BMW for now
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Canton, MI

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
325,000 EVs (both BEV and PHEV) were sold in 2019 in the US according to an estimate from Edmunds released in a Los Angles Times article. This is a decrease of 6.88% from 349,000 units sold in 2018.

InsideEVs, which tracks EV sales through its Sales Scorecard, estimates 329,528 EV units were sold in 2019, roughly 4,500 more than Edmund's estimate and a decrease of 8.88% versus the higher 361,307 InsideEVs estimated for 2018.
Combined PHEV + BEV sales are worth looking at, but its really BEV (and, if they become significant some day, FCEV) sales that are more interesting.

We'll learn a lot this year, because this is the first year for the Model Y. It remains an open question as to how much Model 3 (or non-Tesla BEV, for that matter) cannibalization may occur. If it is relatively low, that suggests that the EV market may scale commensurately as other new form factors are introduced, including pickup trucks.

In any case, however, I don't expect BEV sales to grow by more than ~1% of the total vehicle market per year in the US for the next five years (at least).
Appreciate 1
Viffermike1725.50

      03-10-2020, 03:22 PM   #8
Gamb1t
Captain
Gamb1t's Avatar
Canada
427
Rep
947
Posts

Drives: 330i, X1, RX-8
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Canukistan

iTrader: (0)

Any data on Hybrids? I see alot of Priuses and Rav4s Primes around. I wonder folks are buying those instead of BEV/PHEV because it's kinda like a.... hybrid of the ICE and EV.

I read somewhere that Model S and X sales have gone down in the last couple of years. Basically Tesla is being propped up by Model 3 nowadays.
It would be interesting to see Taycan sales for subsequent years too.

As more governments pull out $ubsidies, EV sales growth will decelerate. That said, all it takes are policies against ICE vehicles to re-energize EV sales.
Appreciate 0
      03-10-2020, 05:55 PM   #9
Salty Dog
Captain
Salty Dog's Avatar
3525
Rep
886
Posts

Drives: Austin Mini,MBGLK, Porsche 993
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
The theory of EV inevitably in the US seems flawed when EV sales were notably DOWN last year. Yet the fanboys continue to turn a blind eye to the most-important factor in the automotive industry... SALES.

From evadoption follow the link for the full article and explanations behind the list of 6 reasons: https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sa...6-reasons-why/

1. 2018 Was a Monster Year for EV Sales

2. Tesla Model 3 Only Had "Modest" Growth

3. Significant Decline Among Top Selling Vehicles

4. Sales Declines for 63% of EV Models

5. No New High-Volume EVs Were Introduced

6. Limited Supply and Dealer Availability


2019 US EV Sales Decreased an Estimated 7% to 9% 6 Reasons Why

2019 sales of electric vehicles in the US decreased 7% to 9% versus very strong sales growth in 2018, according to separate estimates from Edmunds and InsideEVs.

325,000 EVs (both BEV and PHEV) were sold in 2019 in the US according to an estimate from Edmunds released in a Los Angles Times article. This is a decrease of 6.88% from 349,000 units sold in 2018.

InsideEVs, which tracks EV sales through its Sales Scorecard, estimates 329,528 EV units were sold in 2019, roughly 4,500 more than Edmund's estimate and a decrease of 8.88% versus the higher 361,307 InsideEVs estimated for 2018.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, however, which publishes actual vehicle registrations using data from IHS Markit, lists a much lower 328,818 EVs sold in 2018. The Alliance updates its Advanced Technology Vehicle Sales Dashboard every few months with sales data that is typically only through about 4 months prior to the current date. The current data is updated through June of 2019 and so full-year 2019 data (now supplied by Hedges & Co.) is not expected until perhaps April or May.
If EV's are so fantastic then why does the government need to give rebates to purchasers to get them to buy? When the government's in Canada dropped the rebates ($14,000) sales dropped by more than 50%. If they are any good then let the market work and let them beat out ICE or fail.
Appreciate 1
      03-10-2020, 06:03 PM   #10
Dog Face Pony Soldier
2006 TIME Person Of The Year
Dog Face Pony Soldier's Avatar
United_States
7766
Rep
5,817
Posts

Drives: M Sport 335i
Join Date: May 2013
Location: North Jersey

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 335i  [4.87]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post

If EV's are so fantastic then why does the government need to give rebates to purchasers to get them to buy? When the government's in Canada dropped the rebates ($14,000) sales dropped by more than 50%. If they are any good then let the market work and let them beat out ICE or fail.
Politics and government aside... It's a fundamental flaw for any product to need the crutch of rebates to be successful.
__________________
Appreciate 3
Salty Dog3524.50
Viffermike1725.50
heavyD^21163.00

      03-10-2020, 06:19 PM   #11
ASAP
Stargazing
ASAP's Avatar
No_Country
3032
Rep
4,570
Posts

Drives: '20 M2 Comp HS
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: 305

iTrader: (0)

3 things imho...

1) the vehicles are still expensive
2) many EV rebates have expired
3) limitation on charging areas outside of larger cities


In terms of a cleanliness, environment, efficiency and cost efficiency standpoint... i still many years later don't see how one could beat an 18K corolla that can get nearly 45 mpg at 1.99 a gallon.

The torque curve and tech sales point doesn't work for anyone that actually doesn't care about cars for more than transport.
Appreciate 2
      03-10-2020, 06:22 PM   #12
SteveinArizona
Colonel
United_States
1385
Rep
2,191
Posts

Drives: BMW 530e
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Greater Phoenix

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
According to THIS SITE, US auto sales were down 1.9% in 2019.

The EV drop doesn't surprise me, the Tesla hype is seemingly dying down. Musk is scrambling to keep Tesla in the headlines, hence the Cybertruck... Gotta try and stay relevant. Although, Tesla did just cross the 1,000,000 vehicle mark.

With the Mach-E coming this year with a ton of pre-orders, I am interested to see how well they are received. It hits on all of the US HOT sales points by being an electric SUV with a good price point and decent range. The only caveat is that Ford has said the first year will be limited to 50,000 orders globally, and that is an awfully small number compared to a Rav4, which sold 200,610 units in 2019, or a CR-V (176,944 units), or a Rogue (175,267 units), or even a Tahoe with 53,795 units. All of those numbers are US sales only, so 50k globally sounds like a lot, but definitely isn't. Also, funny enough, over 25% of all pre-orders for the MachE are from which US state...? CALIFORNIA, who would've guessed??
But the same site shows passenger cars in the US down 10.1%.
Appreciate 0
      03-10-2020, 06:28 PM   #13
Dog Face Pony Soldier
2006 TIME Person Of The Year
Dog Face Pony Soldier's Avatar
United_States
7766
Rep
5,817
Posts

Drives: M Sport 335i
Join Date: May 2013
Location: North Jersey

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 335i  [4.87]
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveinArizona View Post
But the same site shows passenger cars in the US down 10.1%.
But buyers moved to light trucks and not EVs. That's what is relevant when people post graphs of BMW, MB, Audi sedan sales trending downward, and Model 3 sales trending upward. It's disingenuous or just wrong to imply these luxury sedan buyers are all moving to Model 3s. They're mostly moving to light trucks.
__________________
Appreciate 2
Conissah1058.50
Salty Dog3524.50

      03-10-2020, 06:31 PM   #14
Dog Face Pony Soldier
2006 TIME Person Of The Year
Dog Face Pony Soldier's Avatar
United_States
7766
Rep
5,817
Posts

Drives: M Sport 335i
Join Date: May 2013
Location: North Jersey

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 335i  [4.87]
Objective data
Attached Images
 
__________________
Appreciate 0
      03-10-2020, 06:42 PM   #15
ecaedus
Second Lieutenant
91
Rep
295
Posts

Drives: Model 3 LR
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Los Angeles

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
But buyers moved to light trucks and not EVs. That's what is relevant when people post graphs of BMW, MB, Audi sedan sales trending downward, and Model 3 sales trending upward. It's disingenuous or just wrong to imply these luxury sedan buyers are all moving to Model 3s. They're mostly moving to light trucks.
it'll be interesting to see if Model Y sales can create that same graph again against X3/GLC/Q5...now i'll be honest with the tax incentive gone for Tesla it might not be able to pull it off like the Model 3. We'll see.
Appreciate 2
      03-10-2020, 06:54 PM   #16
Dog Face Pony Soldier
2006 TIME Person Of The Year
Dog Face Pony Soldier's Avatar
United_States
7766
Rep
5,817
Posts

Drives: M Sport 335i
Join Date: May 2013
Location: North Jersey

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 335i  [4.87]
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecaedus View Post
it'll be interesting to see if Model Y sales can create that same graph again against X3/GLC/Q5...now i'll be honest with the tax incentive gone for Tesla it might not be able to pull it off like the Model 3. We'll see.
I think it's difficult enough to compare the sales performance between drivetrain types; never mind drivetrain types within body types. But I agree, it will be interesting to see the numbers nonetheless.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      03-10-2020, 08:36 PM   #17
Clark_Kent
Major
Clark_Kent's Avatar
1213
Rep
1,457
Posts

Drives: Retired
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Atlanta, GA

iTrader: (0)

I'm surprised the fanbois haven't been in here already to defend EV sales (specifically Tesla). I bet they'll find a way to spin those numbers with a "you don't understand" talk track.
__________________
Retired: 2018 BMW M3 CS, 2018 BMW M3 ZCP, 2016 BMW M3
Appreciate 1
      03-10-2020, 08:49 PM   #18
roastbeef
Lieutenant General
roastbeef's Avatar
United_States
6799
Rep
10,421
Posts

Drives: E92 M3
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Orange County, CA

iTrader: (2)

i know california has started to reduce incentives and thats a big part of it.
__________________
Instagram; @roastbeefmike
Appreciate 0
      03-11-2020, 03:11 AM   #19
eluded
2JZ-GTE
eluded's Avatar
Bulgaria
2109
Rep
2,991
Posts

Drives: 340 6MT
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Sofia

iTrader: (0)

#FakeNews
Appreciate 0
      03-11-2020, 07:36 AM   #20
Alfisti
Major
1211
Rep
1,382
Posts

Drives: 2013 X3
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Toronto, Canada

iTrader: (0)

In the end it's all going to come down to economics. Batteries are difficult to make and extremely expensive and will NOT benefit from scale as the minerals required to make them are rare.

This problem is not going to go away. You cannot make a sub 40K EV and make money, you just can't.
Appreciate 1
Salty Dog3524.50

      03-11-2020, 05:42 PM   #21
sethwas
Second Lieutenant
117
Rep
229
Posts

Drives: 228i
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: South Florida

iTrader: (0)

It's an apples to oranges thing. On the ICE side, you have the entire fleet of vehicles available for sale in the US. On the EV side, you have a shockingly low selection.

Let's assume you want to spend less than $70k, don't want a Model 3, and want at least 200 miles of range. You've got the Bolt, the Leaf, the Kona, and the Niro. That's about it. Four whole choices. All compact-ish economy car hatchbacks. Want any other kind of car? No dice. It's the Model 3 or those four choices in a single form factor that represent the entire lineup of EVs with reasonable range in the US.

Should you decide you can live with less than 200 miles of real world range, your list expands to the Ioniq, Cooper SE, and i3 (the latter two have not much more than 100 miles of range). All are hatchbacks again, and the Mini only has two doors. At least the interiors are more upscale. But they are actually smaller than the first three choices, further alienating audiences. Still, we are now are at seven hatchbacks.

If, unlike a typical auto buyer, you can splurge over a $70k budget, the list grows by four more to include the Model S, Model X, I-PACE, and e-tron (all with usable range). To cite an even further outlier (to the point of statistical irrelevance), if you splurge even more and live with the low range, there's the Taycan.

So when the article says "EV sales decreased" it really means the sale of three specific economy car hatchbacks decreased.
Appreciate 2
Alfisti1211.00
F32Fleet1915.50

      03-11-2020, 07:21 PM   #22
Red Bread
Major General
United_States
3538
Rep
8,505
Posts

Drives: Smog machines
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Dallas, TX

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by sethwas View Post
Let's assume you want to spend less than $70k, don't want a Model 3, and want at least 200 miles of range. You've got the Bolt, the Leaf, the Kona, and the Niro. That's about it. Four whole choices. All compact-ish economy car hatchbacks.
The Volvo XC40 Recharge is coming out now, and unlike the others on that list it is a legitimate SUV with available AWD. The Model Y is here now too.

Quote:
Should you decide you can live with less than 200 miles of real world range, your list expands to the Ioniq, Cooper SE, and i3 (the latter two have not much more than 100 miles of range). All are hatchbacks again, and the Mini only has two doors.
Yes. There was also the 500e, Clarity EV, and e-Golf, but they are now dead.
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:40 PM.




5post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST