Math/statistical model predicts new M3 specs

[swamp2]

Using a really simple spreadsheet, trend analysis and the specs from a bunch of M and non M 3 series cars I have predicted the price, weight and performance of the new M3.

Min Max
curb weight lb 3588 3632
hp 398 424
torque 297 301
0-60 mph 3.8 4.1
0-100 km/hr 4.5 4.6
base price $ 53135 53260

I just gathered all of this info. for the first model years for the E36 328, E36 M3, E46 330ci and E46 M3 and did some simple trending through series and from non M car to M car. The figures using both methods came out remarkably close and just about nailed the hp figure perfectly (we have been told 400, but many expect 420 to compete with cars that will be soon available). I will post my spreadsheet later today on an ftp site. Some of the numbers are not perfect, I just pulled them a bit randomly from the web. I also chose to use the first year in the series for price (may or may not be a great assumption). Again this is only one very simple way to predict, more of a marketing approach, but it is unbiased and purely mathematical. You can use the spreadsheet to predict other data you may be interested in about the car. Of course the major change of I6 to V8 also makes this approach less valid but heck all numbers look very reasonable to me. Enjoy.

ftp://ftp.vasci.com/misc/e92m3.xls

[Mgrady]

In this situation, i truly do wish that flaming would be allowed in this forum. Their is no ****ing way in hell that the M3 0-60 will be anywhere near 3.8 or 4.1. First of all, a Ferrari F430 has a 0-60 at a 4.0 and the spider is at 4.1, you've truly lost your mind if you think this M3 will be that fast. Don't get me wrong, I would love it if this were to be true but it's completely illogical for this car to be faster than the M5/M6; I think the best guess would be 4.6 or 4.7, since the M5 stands at 4.5. BMW won't make a M5 going for 90K and have an M3 going for 30-40K less that would be much faster, just doesn't make sense. Sorry...

[swamp2]

Did you even look at the spreadsheet? It is only a trend analysis - no "physics" or other calculations. No need to get all worked up! I was not posting my OPINIONS of exactly how fast the new car will be. In fact, in my opinion, the weight, price and some other predicitons from the method are probably much closer to what will be reality than the 0-60. I agree 0-60 predictions are low, especially the 3.8 number (absurd even). You certainly must admit the method predicts hp well? Other more analytical methods (definitely not statistical) based on torque, hp and weight primarily together will do a much better job predicting 0-60.

Also comparing M3/M5: Depeding on which numbers you look at the E46 M3 is about the same 0-60 or maybe even faster than the E39 M5. M3/M5 target a quite different market. I do not think it is unreasonable at all to believe the new M3 could be as fast 0-60 as the current M5. Gearing is obviously a huge factor and I bet the new M3 has an awfully low 1st gear!

[swamp2]

The current E46 M3 can run 0-60 in 4.7 so your assumption that the new car will be the same as the current one with massive increase in cylinders, displacement, hp and torque and more gears is perhaps what deserves serious scrutiny.

[Mgrady]

Sorry if i sounded mad i was kidding, but i've driven' the current m3, my friends have many and averaging out all the diff. 0-60's on the current m3 isn't 4.7, its more of 4.8 and higher. Btw the M6 is a sports/coupe and so is the new M3, yes the 6 series is much more elegant but they won't have this car faster than an M6. One more thing the M3 your probably talkin' about is the CSL version, and that's quoted at 4.9(which is most likely off) on this site ---> http://www.rsportscars.com/eng/cars/bmw_m3csl.asp . No! I don't think they're right or even rely on this site but it's an example.

[carnuts3]

Can someone please explain the following: If the 335i with 300hp can do 0-60 in 4.9 -5.1 seconds, why wouldn't the new M3 with 400+hp do 0-60 in the very low 4's (or even 3.9)?? Even if the M3 weighs more than the 335i (by a few hundred lbs), the M3 should exceed the 335i's 0-60 performance by at least 1 second - don't you think???

[Smoltz]

Originally Posted by carnuts3

Can someone please explain the following: If the 335i with 300hp can do 0-60 in 4.9 -5.1 seconds, why wouldn't the new M3 with 400+hp do 0-60 in the very low 4's (or even 3.9)?? Even if the M3 weighs more than the 335i (by a few hundred lbs), the M3 should exceed the 335i's 0-60 performance by at least 1 second - don't you think???

In a word. No.

-Adam

[GoTrojans]

Originally Posted by carnuts3

Can someone please explain the following: If the 335i with 300hp can do 0-60 in 4.9 -5.1 seconds, why wouldn't the new M3 with 400+hp do 0-60 in the very low 4's (or even 3.9)?? Even if the M3 weighs more than the 335i (by a few hundred lbs), the M3 should exceed the 335i's 0-60 performance by at least 1 second - don't you think???

... its called the Law of Diminishing Returns. It is much harder to make a 5 second car go from 0-60 in 4 seconds than it is to make a, say, 7 second car do it in 6 seconds. Some things, like the time it takes to change gears, and gain traction from a standstill, are incredibly difficult to compensate for regardless of how much the lb/hp ratio is improved, and will always take a significant (relatively) amount of that 4 to 5 seconds.

[ichiautobahn]

Originally Posted by GoTrojans

... its called the Law of Diminishing Returns. It is much harder to make a 5 second car go from 0-60 in 4 seconds than it is to make a, say, 7 second car do it in 6 seconds. Some things, like the time it takes to change gears, and gain traction from a standstill, are incredibly difficult to compensate for regardless of how much the lb/hp ratio is improved, and will always take a significant (relatively) amount of that 4 to 5 seconds.

Very very very well said.

Keyword, Diminishing Returns. That is exactly what it is.
Say it'll take 70 more horsepower to get into 12.0 1/4mile from 12.5. It'll take more than 100hp to get into 11.5 from 12.0. Same length of time reduced, but much more power is needed.

[Mikeobello]

Originally Posted by Mgrady

In this situation, i truly do wish that flaming would be allowed in this forum. Their is no ****ing way in hell that the M3 0-60 will be anywhere near 3.8 or 4.1. First of all, a Ferrari F430 has a 0-60 at a 4.0 and the spider is at 4.1, you've truly lost your mind if you think this M3 will be that fast. Don't get me wrong, I would love it if this were to be true but it's completely illogical for this car to be faster than the M5/M6; I think the best guess would be 4.6 or 4.7, since the M5 stands at 4.5. BMW won't make a M5 going for 90K and have an M3 going for 30-40K less that would be much faster, just doesn't make sense. Sorry...

The m3 WILL be faster than the M5! The M5 is positioned in a different market with other expectations of the buyers. The M3 will speedwise not be in competition with the m5, but with rs4, ... and the other fast cars. There are japanese cars comming up in the low 5's. The m3 has a reputation to defend, being an established sportscar. the m5 is also marketingwise not to be compared with the m3. Can you point out a special forum on m5? probably not. the guys who buy an m5 are probably dont even know the specs of their car all that well, just because they want it to be fast, but also other things. questions?

[Mgrady]

ok u have a point with that, but can u also explain the M6 now?

[Mikeobello]

Originally Posted by Mgrady

ok u have a point with that, but can u also explain the M6 now?

I think the m6 goes around 4.2 - 4.4 sec 0-100 km/h, i dont think the m3 will be faster than that! And with the m6 as well, it carries another image than the m3, it does not only live from performance but also exclusivity, dont you think mate?

[Van White]

Hey Mike,

Just as an FYI there is an M5 Board for M5 owners. These guys have been tracking purchases and issues for the M5 since the first car delivery. Check it out when you have time. It is a well put together board.

http://www.m5board.com/

Regards,
JW

[GregW / Oregon]

Originally Posted by Mgrady

Their is no ****ing way in hell that the M3 0-60 will be anywhere near 3.8 or 4.1. First of all, a Ferrari F430 has a 0-60 at a 4.0 and the spider is at 4.1, you've truly lost your mind if you think this M3 will be that fast. Don't get me wrong, I would love it if this were to be true but it's completely illogical for this car to be faster than the M5/M6; I think the best guess would be 4.6 or 4.7, since the M5 stands at 4.5. BMW won't make a M5 going for 90K and have an M3 going for 30-40K less that would be much faster, just doesn't make sense. Sorry...

4.1 is stretching it, but the low 4s, even equal to the M5 & M6 is very possible. Remember, the US is hung up on 0-60, but there's much more to the performance equation. The M5 and M6 will always be faster than the M3 above 60 and at ungoverened top end, but I think it is very possible the M3 will match them off the line.

[Mikeobello]

Originally Posted by Van White

Hey Mike,

Just as an FYI there is an M5 Board for M5 owners. These guys have been tracking purchases and issues for the M5 since the first car delivery. Check it out when you have time. It is a well put together board.

http://www.m5board.com/

Regards,
JW

Hi Van
thanx for the info. didnt know it exists.
Cheers Mike

[Mgrady]

Mike! The M5 and M6 0-60 are almost identical , the M6 is at 4.4 at best but averaging out everyone's 'facts' it comes down to 4.5!

[bambam]

Originally Posted by carnuts3

Can someone please explain the following: If the 335i with 300hp can do 0-60 in 4.9 -5.1 seconds, why wouldn't the new M3 with 400+hp do 0-60 in the very low 4's (or even 3.9)?? Even if the M3 weighs more than the 335i (by a few hundred lbs), the M3 should exceed the 335i's 0-60 performance by at least 1 second - don't you think???

torque

[Mikeobello]

Originally Posted by Mgrady

Mike! The M5 and M6 0-60 are almost identical , the M6 is at 4.4 at best but averaging out everyone's 'facts' it comes down to 4.5!

You are right, but the "almost" costs about 0.3 secs, which is quite a lot in these areas. the m6 weighs about 50 kg less, it has got a stiffer chassis, and the drivetrain is more sportive (less compromise). the air gets thin in these areas. so the m6 goes aroung 4.4 and the m5 around 4.7. And i would guess the m3 will beat the m5 in the 0-100 and everywhere else, and be about equal in acceleration with the m6, but beat it in laptimes, for the m3 will have even less compromises in terms of the drivetrain, .... but hey, i am guessing with whats in my brain

[Mgrady]

Thanks for the info! Pray for me, i might get an M6 in December, white on black , long story but its like a 50/50 of how sure i am on gettin' it, but thats good to know it wont beat the M6 'cause i would be pissed drivin a 100k+ car with M3's shitting on me, wouldn't make sense. Btw my dealer told me it could take up to EIGHTEEN months from now before they release the M3, and thats worst case but is this f**kin true!!!?? ::mad:

[Mikeobello]

Originally Posted by Mgrady

Thanks for the info! Pray for me, i might get an M6 in December, white on black , long story but its like a 50/50 of how sure i am on gettin' it, but thats good to know it wont beat the M6 'cause i would be pissed drivin a 100k+ car with M3's shitting on me, wouldn't make sense. Btw my dealer told me it could take up to EIGHTEEN months from now before they release the M3, and thats worst case but is this f**kin true!!!?? ::mad:

Dude
Why would you care if the new m3 would be faster than your m6 (dont think it will be anyway). you just cannot compare the m3 with an m6, though the m6 is such a fine car. but i dont know, you people in USA might race each other regularly? here in Switzerland, its just like this: the m6 is seen so seldom (unfortunately) while the m3 is driven by many idiots. no comparison here anyway. Move to switzerland when you have a problem as such, here it will be more like:

[carnuts3]

Originally Posted by GoTrojans

... its called the Law of Diminishing Returns. It is much harder to make a 5 second car go from 0-60 in 4 seconds than it is to make a, say, 7 second car do it in 6 seconds. Some things, like the time it takes to change gears, and gain traction from a standstill, are incredibly difficult to compensate for regardless of how much the lb/hp ratio is improved, and will always take a significant (relatively) amount of that 4 to 5 seconds.

Thanks for the insight. I quess I'm frustrated by the AMG performance stats. I know that 0-60 performance isn't everything - but it's great having all that power on demand. Regarding the M3, I'll settle for 0-60 times around 4.5 seconds. Otherwise, for every day driving, the extra cost of the M3 may not be worth it over the 335i.

[m3holiday]

Originally Posted by Mgrady

In this situation, i truly do wish that flaming would be allowed in this forum. Their is no ****ing way in hell that the M3 0-60 will be anywhere near 3.8 or 4.1. First of all, a Ferrari F430 has a 0-60 at a 4.0 and the spider is at 4.1, you've truly lost your mind if you think this M3 will be that fast. Don't get me wrong, I would love it if this were to be true but it's completely illogical for this car to be faster than the M5/M6; I think the best guess would be 4.6 or 4.7, since the M5 stands at 4.5. BMW won't make a M5 going for 90K and have an M3 going for 30-40K less that would be much faster, just doesn't make sense. Sorry...

3.9-4.1 0-60 is possible with the right power to weight ratio. Using a Ferrari as an example isn't a valid argument either. Besides the fact that road and track got 0-60 in 3.6 seconds for the F430, and they are notoriously conservative in their tests. A Corvette Z06 gets 0-60 in 3.8 seconds, why couldn't a M3? Not to mention all these tests are subjective to weather, driver, etc...420Hp in a 3600 pound car is going to do some damage, the key will be torque #s to see what it will really do. I doubt the E92 M3 will only be marginally faster than a 335, but I suppose it's possible.

Cars are getting fast... I can understand why you don't think it would be as fast or faster than an M5 or M6, but as others have said M5s and M6s will most likely still have more top end power. Like the disparity between the e46 M3 and e39 M5. 0-60 and 1/4 times are similar, but do a 40-120 and the e39 will win hands down.

Even if the car is faster than them, it in now way degrades the M5 and M6 because they have a little bit of a different target market. Case in point a 650 is 10-15k more than and E46 M3 but slower. Did the 650 owner get ripped off? Having an M6 is in the class of owning an Aston Martin(which I'd rather have to be honest). The Aston is more expensive, but there is the exclusivity of it. Same with the M5 and M6. People don't buy them only b/c they are fastest. They buy them for brand, class, engineering, and they are fast. Otherwise they'd be in a Z06.

Sorry for the rant on my first post here. I'll step down from the soap box now.